Now that we are one year out from the 2011 Arab Spring, what lessons have we learned about the causes of political instability in the Middle East and North Africa? In my forthcoming paper in The Journal of Politics, below, I outline these lessons. In a companion paper, further below, I contextualize these lessons historically.

The Middle East and North Africa’s Resilient Monarchs
http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=1548222

This paper helps explain the variation in political turmoil observed in the MENA during the Arab Spring. The region’s monarchies have been largely spared of violence while the “republics” have not. A theory about how a monarchy’s political culture solves a ruler’s credible commitment problem explains why this has been the case. Using a panel dataset of the MENA countries (1950-2006), I show that monarchs are less likely than non-monarchs to experience political instability, a result that holds across several measures. They are also more likely to respect the rule of law and property rights, and grow their economies. Through the use of an instrumental variable that proxies for a legacy of tribalism, the time that has elapsed since the Neolithic Revolution weighted by Land Quality, I show that this result runs from monarchy to political stability. The results are also robust to alternative political explanations and country fixed effects.

Why an Arab Spring May Never Arrive: Political Culture and Stability in the Middle East and North Africa’s Monarchies
http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=1977706

2011 ushered in a new, more uncertain future in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA). Ben Ali, who ruled Tunisia since 1987, Mubarak, who ruled Egypt since 1981, and Gaddafi, who ruled Libya since 1969, were forced from power. In Bahrain, Iran, and Syria, security forces have cracked down on popular protests. Virtually every country in the region has experienced some protests and calls for reform. This paper gains purchase on the variation in political turmoil in the MENA during the Arab Spring. The region’s monarchies have been largely spared of violence while the “republics” have not. This paper shows that this has also been the case historically. It provides a theory of political culture that explains why. It also illustrates the historical evolution of monarchical rule in the MENA. A case study of the Qatari monarchy puts flesh on the theory.

By Victor Menaldo